A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIO-TECHNICAL DETERMINANTS ON MALAYSIA'S PADDY PRODUCTION USING AN ASYMMETRIC ARDL MODEL

อาจารย์Khoo Kang Onn

Department of Agribusiness and Bioresource Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia

รองศาสตราจารย์ ดร.Wong Kelly Kai Seng

Department of Agribusiness and Bioresource Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia

อาจารย์ ดร.Krisdakorn Grabriel Wongwai

Udon Thani Rajabhat University, 64, Thahan Rd, Mak Khaeng Sub-district, Udon Thani 41000, Thailand

อาจารย์Wong WangLi

School of Economics and Management, Xiamen University Malaysia, 43900 Sepang, Malaysia.

คำสำคัญ

Keywords: Malaysia, paddy yield, ARDL model, climate resilience, aging workforce

บทคัดย่อ

ABSTRACT Malaysia’s paddy sector faces persistent yield stagnation despite substantial policy interventions and rising input use. This study addresses the critical research problem of identifying the key environmental, economic, and socio-technical determinants that constrain productivity and threaten the nation’s food self-sufficiency goals. This study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test to analyze the long-run and short-run determinants of paddy yield in Malaysia from 1991 to 2022. The results confirm a stable long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. While short-run dynamics highlight the significant non-linear effects of fertilizer, temperature, and rainfall, the long-run model reveals a paradox: land area and fertilizer consumption are statistically insignificant in the long term. Instead, extreme temperatures and an aging agricultural workforce emerge as critical binding constraints on productivity. The findings underscore the vulnerability of the sector to macroeconomic shocks, as evidenced by the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, and the positive impact of targeted government interventions. The study advocates for a dual-pronged strategy focusing on climate resilience through precision farming and addressing socio-technical barriers, particularly the aging workforce, to achieve Malaysia’s food self-sufficiency goals.

reference

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